South
China Sea and Malaysia
Malaysia has preferred to rely on diplomacy and
consensus that avoids embarrassing other states in addressing its maritime
disputes in the SCS. The ground work for this modus operandi was developed
during Tun Mahathir’s tenure as Prime Minister. After securing Malaysia’s claim
on three Spratly islands through military occupation, Mahathir’s administration
focused greater diplomatic efforts to get all disputing parties including China
to consult with each other; using the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) as a main platform for these discussions. After Mahathir’s retirement
in 2003, these policies were adapted with little innovation by his successors
including the current Prime Minister, Dato’ Sri Haji Mohammad Najib.
Malaysia’s traditional South China Sea position under
the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak might be best summed up as a
“playing it safe” approach designed to preserve its interests as well as to
manage its close ties with China.
Discussion of renaming parts of the South China Sea is
far from something new in the region. Indeed, if Malaysia does choose to rename
its part of the South China Sea, it would also be just the latest in a
succession of such designations we have witnessed among Southeast Asian states.
The two other main Southeast Asian claimants in the South China Sea, the
Philippines and Vietnam, already call the South China Sea the West Philippine
Sea and the East Sea respectively. And, last year, Indonesia, which is
technically not a South China Sea claimant but is nonetheless an interested
party, announced that it would now call it the North Natuna Sea.
Malaysia’s real challenge which such discussions of
new ideas often leave out: though it may be on firm ground with legal moves
like these, the country’s military capabilities remain quite limited, and the
Najib government would be hesitant to take moves like significantly restrict
economic activity with Beijing.
Aware that their navy and
air force are underequipped, Malaysia’s military planners have developed
several plans to upgrade old platforms and acquire new ones in recent years.
However, military spending has never been prioritized in the government budget,
and most plans for force modernization have been repeatedly delayed or cancelled.
The declining trend in Malaysia’s defense outlay was halted in 2013. That year,
Malaysia was shocked when China staged a naval exercise around James Shoal, a
72-foot deep underwater bank lying 55 nautical miles (nm) off the Malaysian
Borneo coast. It was also in 2013 that China Coast Guard ships started to
anchor at South Luconia Shoal, an oil-rich area lying 70 nm off Borneo.
Each of Malaysia’s armed services face challenges in securing their areas of
Malaysia’s claimed maritime territory with their current assets.
Since returning to power after his stunning
election victory in May 2018, the 93–year–old Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad has made a series of comments reflective of weaker states’ views of the
evolving Asian order in the Trump–Xi era. These include a firmer stance on the
South China Sea disputes, Malaysia’s relations with the Asian powers
(especially concerning the controversial China–backed infrastructure projects
and Japan’s regional role), as well as the future of multilateral trading
arrangements.
Judging from Mahathir’s
recent remarks, as well as his policies during his first premiership from
1981–2003 (“Mahathir 1.0”), three elements can be identified as the core
constituents of the emerging “Mahathir Doctrine”:
·
The South China Sea
should be a sea of cooperation, connectivity, and community–building, not
confrontation or conflict.
·
Diplomatic
consultations, not military swaggering, are the key to managing and
resolving any inter–state disputes in East Asia and elsewhere.
·
While all countries, big
and small, are welcome to play a constructive role in the widening East Asia
community building via integration and creation of bigger markets, weaker
states’ interests must be respected, protected, and fulfilled.
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