For the last few days, we have seen on the news that a No-Deal Brexit is highly likely to happen. With a simple glimpse, it is relatively easy to see the media paints a very gloomy future. However, what would be the consequences in the NO-Deal Brexit scenario? The United Kingdom Government has already answered that and many other questions.
What is a No-Deal scenario?
“The UK triggered Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union on 29 March 2017. As set out under that treaty, the UK has two years to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement and framework for a future relationship with the EU before the point of the UK’s exit from the EU at 11pm GMT on 29 March 2019.”
“A no deal scenario is one where the UK leaves the EU and becomes a third country at 11pm GMT on 29 March 2019 without a Withdrawal Agreement and framework for a future relationship in place between the UK and the EU.”
“In a no deal scenario there would therefore be no agreement to apply any of the elements of the Withdrawal Agreement described above.”
“The UK is therefore preparing for a scenario where there is no UK-EU agreement in place on exit day.”
Two weeks to go…
In a report released last week, Graeme Cowie (Senior Library Clerk at the House of Commons Library, specialising in Brexit) tells us:
On Tuesday 26 February the Prime Minister set out the next stages of the Brexit process. Speaking from the dispatch box, she promised up to three key votes due to take place in the Commons on 12, 13 and 14 March.
‘Meaningful vote 2.0’
The first commitment the Prime Minister made was to give the House of Commons another ‘meaningful vote’ on or before Tuesday 12 March. This was a motion to approve a deal for the purposes of section 13(1) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. The UK legally cannot ratify a withdrawal agreement unless (among other things) this motion passes.
A vote on leaving without a deal
Since the Commons rejected a deal again, the Prime Minister has promised to bring forward a second motion for debate on Wednesday 13 March (that is today).
A vote on whether the Prime Minister should seek an extension
The third prong of the Prime Minister’s promise was that, if the Commons rejects, “leaving without a deal on 29 March,” she will then bring forward a motion for debate on Thursday 14 March. This motion would propose that she seek a “short extension” of Article 50’s two-year negotiating period.
If an extension is not agreed, the legal default is that the UK leaves, with or without a deal on 29 March 2019. The only two ways a ‘no-deal’ exit could then be avoided would be the approval and ratification of a deal, or the revocation of the UK’s notification under Article 50.
In principle, the answer should come in the next few hours.
Wednesday 13th March 2019
Jorge Emilio Núñez