A research
paper published just days ago by London School of Economics and Political
sciences (LSE) explores the potential consequences of the 2016 referendum and
Brexit for public services, inequalities and social rights.
A
summary of its contents below
What does Brexit mean for social policy in the UK?
“The paper explores the consequences of Brexit understood in
two ways – as the referendum result itself and as the eventual outcome of
negotiations over the exit process and shape of future relations with Europe.
Regardless of where the process ends up, the result changed British politics.
The evidence the vote presented of deep disaffection with the status quo, the
change of administration, and the time and resources focused on withdrawal negotiations
and scenario planning have all had ongoing implications for social
policymaking.”
“In terms of the eventual outcome, huge uncertainty remains
and may well continue for years to come. Against this backdrop, the paper maps
out the implications of likely alternatives, including a central scenario in
which the UK leaves the single market and brings an end to the free movement of
workers.”
The “conclusion is that Brexit poses major risks to social
policy, and that these risks are larger the more distant the UK’s future
relationship with the EU. Social policy has been affected by the UK’s
membership of the EU in multiple ways – and hence will be deeply unsettled by
leaving.”
“There is a strong consensus that economic growth will be
negatively affected in the medium - term, particularly under ‘harder’ Brexit
scenarios, and that this in turn will affect many of the areas covered in this
paper. Slower growth will mean lower living standards and al so less money for
public services – the opposite of a ‘Brexit dividend’. It may result in
downward pressure on workers’ rights as the UK tries to find new ways to invite
investment and boost employment, and once we are no longer subject to the EU’s
Charter of Fundamental Rights. And a weaker economy will make the UK a less
attractive place for the migrant worker s we are likely to continue to need to
keep our public services running.”
“Concerns about immigration were interpreted as being one of
the drivers of the referendum result, and ending the free movement of workers
became a red line for the May administration early on. But a fall in EU
migration also looks likely to have significant negative consequences for
social policy. EU migrants play an important role in the delivery of health and
social care and in housing construction, so reduced migration will make it more
difficult – and more expensive – to provide these services. The consequences
for service delivery are likely to be much greater than any reduction in
service demand: EU migrants do use public services like health and social
housing, but no more (indeed if anything rather less) than UK - born citizens.
And overall, they pay more into the exchequer in taxes than they take out in
benefits and services, so reduced migration will also have a negative effect on
public finances. Further, there are unlikely to be major compensatory
consequence s for the wages of UK - born workers as a result of reduced
competition. S mall negative effect s of EU expansion on the wages of some
lower - paid workers in the UK have been identified. But these are estimated to
have had a smaller impact on living standards over the course o f a decade than
the inflation caused by currency depreciation has had in the two years since
the referendum.”
Monday 11th March 2019
Jorge Emilio Núñez
Twitter: @London1701
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